Michigan began the season with dreams of qualifying for the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year. But going back was never expected to be easy with all the personnel that had to get replaced off last year’s team. But as the season heads into Week 9, the Michigan Wolverines’ odds of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) are not bad.
Only a few Michigan online sportsbooks have CFP odds posted at this point in the season. More probably will post them once we get closer to the first CFP committee rankings getting released.
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Michigan Wolverines Odds to Make the CFP
The CFP rankings do not necessarily coincide with the AP and Coaches Poll, but they usually do not vary by much. So, since Michigan is ranked No. 4 in the AP and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll, it would not be shocking to see them inside the top four when the CFP committee releases its first rankings on Nov. 1.
Should that be the case, it would not be shocking to see their odds of making the CFP (Yes/No) improve from where they currently are:
- DraftKings: +200/-250
- Caesars: +170/-200
- PointsBet: +116/-150
Those odds give the Michigan Wolverines a 33.3-46.3% chance of making it and a 60-71.43% chance of missing out.
You would think a top-five team with the No. 9 rushing offense (thanks to Heisman Trophy candidate Blake Corum), No. 7 scoring offense, and a defense that ranks inside the top 10 in total defense, rushing, passing yards, team passing efficiency defense, and scoring would have better odds, but there is an excellent reason why their College Football Playoff odds are as long as they are.
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Michigan Must Beat Ohio State
As the odds currently stand, four teams have better odds (via DraftKings) than Michigan (Georgia -650/+450; Ohio State -650/+450, Clemson -125/-105, and Alabama +160/-195), and Tennessee is not far behind (+260/-340). So, if Michigan is going to supplant one of those teams, the Wolverines need to add something so impressive the CFP committee will feel compelled to give Michigan a berth.
Beat Ohio State.
A win over the Buckeyes in their regular season finale (assuming they beat Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Illinois) would probably do the trick. It would give the Wolverines three wins over ranked teams, including one over the No. 2 team in the country. But we are talking about beating a team with the No. 1 scoring offense, No. 2 total offense, No. 5 total defense, and No. 10 scoring defense.
Oh — and their quarterback is the betting favorite to win the Heisman.
So, it will not be easy for Michigan to beat Ohio State. Early lines have the Buckeyes listed as 10.5-point favorites (via FanDuel), but that is also why a win over Ohio State will propel the Wolverines into the CFP.
Betting Analysis
Ohio State’s stats are misleading. When a team beats up on lesser teams as much as the Buckeyes do, the stat lines are going to look insane (and they do). Of course, the same can be said for Michigan and its non-conference schedule.
So, it all comes down to whether you think the Wolverines can beat Ohio State.
Our Pick: Pass on this one (for now). At +200, there isn’t enough value when considering that a loss to the Buckeyes likely knocks them out. They have a shot at making it, so don’t consider taking ‘No.’ You’ll probably have a chance at a bigger payday if you take the Michigan moneyline for the Ohio State game.
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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