Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Odds: Can Wolverines Score an Upset in Columbus?

Saturday’s Michigan vs. Ohio State game will be the 118th edition of one of college football’s most iconic rivalries. At all of the top Michigan online sportsbooks, the Buckeyes opened as the betting favorite for “The Game,” but it would be foolish to overlook the Wolverines. They were 6.5-point home underdogs last year and went on to win by 15 points, 42-27. Last season’s victory was the first over Ohio State for Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. Could he get No. 2 this weekend?

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Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Odds: Buckeyes Favored by More Than a TD

The Wolverines have the edge over the life of the rivalry with a 59-51-6 record, but the Buckeyes have owned the rivalry for years. Prior to last year’s loss, Ohio State had won eight in a row and 16 of the previous 20 (17 if you count the vacated win in 2010). Michigan has lost in nine of the last 10 trips to Columbus but has gone 4-6 ATS. The final score went over the listed total in seven of those 10 games.

Ohio State opened as 7.5-point home favorites. The odds below are current as of the early afternoon on Nov. 23.

This game is similar to last year’s edition in several ways. Last year, the winner earned a spot in the Big Ten title game and eventually won the conference championship. It also ended the College Football Playoff hopes for one team while making the other team’s resume too impressive for the CFP committee to pass up.

That could very well be the case this season, as well, but that’s not all. Should Ohio State win, Heisman voters will have a hard time passing over C.J. Stroud for someone else. Michigan’s Blake Corum could become the first running back to win the Heisman since Derek Henry (2015) if Michigan wins, though Corum’s status for Saturday is unknown after he suffered a knee injury in last week’s win over Illinois.

But neither head coach will need to use any of that to get his team ready for the game. A chance to exert dominance over a hated rival is enough for one of college football’s oldest and most intense rivalries.

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Similarities To 2021 Exist; Advantage Michigan?

There is more than just what’s on the line that should remind fans and bettors of last year’s game between these two powerhouses. Ohio State (11-0 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) had a high-flying offense with a Heisman Trophy candidate, C.J. Stroud, slinging the ball all over the field. Fast forward to this season, and the Ohio State offense once again centers on a high-flying passing attack led by Stroud.

As for Michigan (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS), the Wolverines are a lot like last year’s squad. Last season, the run game averaged around 214 yards per game. This year, it’s averaging 243. The numbers in the passing game are pretty similar, too (228 yards per game in 2021 and 208 this year).

But the big difference for both teams is their defense. Ohio State’s defense was not great last season. It was good enough against most opponents, but not when it faced a competitive team like Michigan. This season, the Buckeyes have one of the better units in the country (No. 9 in total defense and No. 10 in scoring).

As for Michigan’s defense, it was good last season. It certainly impacted the outcome against Ohio State. This season, it’s one of the best in the country. By some metrics, it is the best (No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in scoring).

Michigan’s defense controlled the game last season. Since this year’s unit appears to be even better, can bettors count on the Wolverines’ defense to do the same on Saturday?

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Blake Corum’s Availability in Question

Michigan’s defense has been lights out this year, but it helps that it is not on the field very much. The Wolverines rank No. 3 in the country in time of possession (35:09) — a byproduct of having the No. 4 rushing attack — but there is a chance the Michigan run game may have to do without Blake Corum this week.

Corum injured his knee in the first half last week against Illinois, and it is unclear if he’ll play this week. All Jim Harbaugh has said is that Corum’s knee is “structurally good,” but he has not indicated whether Corum can play. However, one of the offensive linemen may have let something slip:

Full quote from UM OT Ryan Hayes when asked about his confidence in the offense if it had to play without Blake Corum:

"We've planned on this. He's a great player, but I think everybody else is just gonna step up with him out, and I think that we're up to the challenge."

— Griffin Strom (@GriffinStrom3) November 21, 2022

If Corum does not play, Michigan could still have a solid run game with Donovan Edwards as the lead back. Edwards did not play last week, but he has had two 100-yard games while sharing the backfield with Corum.

Betting Analysis

Ohio State has a tremendous amount of explosive potential on the offensive side of the ball this season, but when going up against a good defense, the Buckeyes’ offense has struggled to get on track. Luckily, the defense has been good enough to bail the offense. But don’t count on that happening on Saturday.

Michigan will have to work for every yard it gains against the Buckeyes’ defense. But the Wolverines’ offense had a solid day against a better defense last week, so there is no reason to think the offense will struggle against Ohio State.

If Corum does not play yards will be harder to come by, but Edwards is good enough to take advantage of the holes Michigan’s massive offensive line creates.

Our Pick: Michigan via the moneyline. If you can’t bring yourself to bet the moneyline, take the points or take the under.

AP Photo/Tony Ding