Michigan CFP Semifinal Odds: Wolverines Open as Large Favorites vs. TCU

The Michigan Wolverines have been placed as anywhere from 8.5- to 9.5-point favorites in their national semifinal game against Texas Christian University in the College Football Playoff, according to Michigan mobile sportsbooks.

The Wolverines are making their second consecutive appearance in the CFP. Last season they lost in the semifinal to Georgia. This time, the Bulldogs will face Michigan’s nemesis the Ohio State Buckeyes in the other CFP semifinal contest.

Michigan will face TCU on Saturday, Dec. 31, at 4 p.m. ET in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz.

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This is the first time the Big Ten has placed two teams in the CFP, and just the second time that Alabama has not been in the field of four since the current format was instituted in 2014.

The moneyline is set at -335 for Michigan at BetRivers, meaning you’ll need to wager $355 on the Wolverines to beat TCU straight-up in order to claim $100 in winnings.

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Michigan CFP Semifinal Odds

The Horned Frogs make their first appearance in the CFP and become only the second Big 12 team to do so. Their first taste of the tournament will be tough to swallow, facing the 13-0 Wolverines, champions of the Big Ten conference.

No Michigan team has ever won 13 games or 14 or 15 for that matter. Coach Jim Harbaugh, who cut his teeth playing quarterback under famed U-M legend Bo Schembechler, has revived this program and once again made the Maize and Blue an elite college football team. But, unlike last season when they were outclassed by Georgia in the semifinal, the No. 2-ranked Wolverines are expected to win a game in the CFP.

The Wolverines are strong finishers. In the second half of their last eight games, Michigan has outscored its opponents 190-29. Yes, really. Harbaugh and his coaching staff are genius at making adjustments, and even more important than that, the Wolverines’ massive O-line and D-line wear down the opponent. By the middle of the third quarter, even the best teams have been thoroughly suppressed by the superior lines of Michigan, which has led to a 157-yard advantage on the ground.

Unlike previous Harbaugh teams, the 2022 Wolverines can make big plays on offense. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy and running back Donovan Edwards have been involved in seven plays in the last three weeks of more than 40 yards, six of them resulting in scores in the second half.

Oddsmakers have the total as high as 59.5 points (FanDuel), which is a high figure for a CFP game, but Michigan has put up 43 PPG in its last two contests and averaged 38.5 over its last five. The Horned Frogs (40.3 PPG) rank sixth in the nation in scoring.

Keys to Beating TCU

TCU features a balanced offense, with an average of 273 yards through the air and 200 on the ground. But, the Horned Frogs have not faced a defensive front like that of Michigan. Even the best running teams in the Big Ten struggled to get yardage against the Wolverines. That means, TCU may be forced to rely on the arm of senior QB Max Duggan, who is also a running threat. But if U-M presents a wall of blue and swallows the holes that TCU and Duggan are used to, the Horned Frogs’ quarterback will have to go downfield.

That’s what Harbaugh will be hoping for because Michigan’s linebackers and defensive backs are playing well and have the size to bully the Frogs’ receivers.