Jared Goff Passing Yards Total: Bet on the Over or Under?

Jared Goff’s first season with the Detroit Lions wasn’t what you’d call a smashing success.

After being swapped for Matthew Stafford in an off-season blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Rams, the former No. 1 overall pick struggled early and often with his new team. Though his first nine games, Goff was 0-8-1, throwing for eight touchdowns to go with six interceptions.

However, Goff and the Lions did manage to turn it around down the stretch. The signal-caller shined in his last five outings, tossing 11 TDs to two interceptions and leading the Lions to three wins in their final four games.

Goff finished the season with 3,245 passing yards, a career low for a season in which he played at least 14 games. The odds at Michigan’s online sportsbooks list Goff’s total yardage in the 3,600–3,700 range. Will the 27-year-old break out in his second season with the Lions? Keep reading to find out.

Can they shock the world?: Detroit Lions odds to win the NFC North

Jared Goff Passing Yards Total

PlayerFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Jared GoffOver 3,600.5 (-112)
Under 3,600.5 (-112)
Over 3,700.5 (+105)
Under 3,700.5 (-125)
Over 3,700.5 (-125)
Under 3,700.5 (+105)
Over 3,650.5 (-115)
Under 3,650.5 (-115)

Rookie of the Year odds: Rare double possible for Detroit Lions rookies?

What to Expect from Goff This Year

Goff’s future as a Lion, and perhaps as a starter in the NFL, hinges on his performance this year. There were low expectations for the Lions last year, especially after the team traded franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford. Goff had somewhat of a grace period as a shell-shocked fanbase adjusted to the new-look Lions.

But if you’re buying the hype, things are different this year. The grace period is over, and the Lions want to win now. To do so, they will need Goff to take a big jump.

The former Ram averaged 231.8 yards per game last year, over 60 yards fewer than his last Pro Bowl season in 2019. He also averaged 6.6 yards per attempt his lowest since his rookie year when he played seven games.

It’s hard to imagine things playing out much differently this season. Even when the Lions got hot down the stretch and went 3-2-1 in their final six games, Goff was still only averaging 208.3 yards per game.

For Detroit to be successful, they need to be efficient, which means short passes and protecting the football. They have two capable running backs that will again see a lot of action, and all they’ll ask of Goff is to be consistent and not turn the ball over.

When Jameson Williams returns, Goff’s yards per game could see a spike with a few more deep balls, but Williams won’t be rushed back and is set to miss a handful of games at minimum.

One way that Goff could hit the Over on 3,600 -3,700 yards is to stay healthy. Even his average of 231.8 yards per game last year would have translated to 3,940.6 yards over 17 games. If he missed just one game, it would have been 3,708.8.

But Goff has missed four games in his last two seasons and isn’t getting any younger. If you pencil him in for two missed games this year, his total yardage will wind up at 3,477 based on his YPG average from last year.

The Lions will definitely be better this year, and I expect Goff to be a competent quarterback and lead the team to six or seven wins. But unless you think he’ll play in all 17 games this year, I’d be pounding the Under on his total passing yards.

AP Photo/Paul Sancya

About the Author

Ryan Hagen

Ryan Hagen is a writer for Michigan Sharp. He’s spent most of his career writing in various roles, copywriting for many different industries. Ryan's passion is sports, and that has been his focus, writing in the sports betting industry for the last few years.