In an NFL season when the operative word has been Under, the Detroit Lions are an outlier. The Lions are the sole team in the league to be 4-0 to the Over this season.
Over isn’t a strong enough word for Detroit. Through four games the team is hitting the over by an average of 21 points.
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The Lions’ success at exceeding their projected points is in opposition to the fact that points are coming at a slow pace. According to TeamRankings.com, the Under (total points for both teams) has hit in 37 of the 64 NFL games through the first four weeks of the season. Through week 4 that’s the most times under has hit since 2003.
The total for Detroit’s game at New England on Sunday, Oct. 9, is set at 45.5 at the top Michigan online sportsbooks. That is significantly lower than the totals in the Lions’ first four games.
The Most Surprising Scoring Machine in the NFL
Remember when Lions fans were lovelorn over former quarterback Matthew Stafford? When it seemed as if his replacement was an empty jersey with an erratic throwing arm and questionable leadership skills?
Jared Goff is turning that thinking on its ear. Last week Goff was named NFL Offensive Player of the Week following his performance against Seattle: 378 yards and four touchdowns in the Lions’ Week 4 defeat at home.
Goff even has some experts whispering that he deserves to be in the NFL Most Valuable Player Award discussion. Some in the Detroit media who used to scoff at Goff (sorry) have reversed and are wondering if the 27-year-old QB is the future of this franchise.
Goff and the Lions’ offense, fueled by 35, 36, 24, and 45-point performances, are turning heads with their high-octane attack. It’s a machine that car-crazed Detroit can be proud of.
Three teams in the league have gone Over three times: the Cleveland Browns, the Atlanta Falcons, and the surprising Jacksonville Jaguars. Each of those teams has been far more productive moving the football than oddsmakers have predicted. A look at the trends through four weeks reveals the Lions are unique in how well they are hitting the Over.
Only three other teams in the NFL — the Baltimore Ravens, the Seattle Seahawks, and the Browns — are averaging as much as eight points more than the Over. Detroit is three touchdowns, on average, above the Over betting market in its first four games. The points are not changing the outcome for the troubled franchise: Dan Campbell’s team is 1-3 and languishing on the defensive side.
Will Lions Total Land Over Again in Week 5?
If you can set aside the losses (aren’t Detroit fans used to them?), the Lions are a dazzling team for sports bettors seeking player and game props.
Goff has 11 touchdown passes with three interceptions, and he’s looking as confident as he ever did when he was with the Rams. A sort of “I’ll show you attitude” is emanating from the Detroit play caller.
Jamaal Williams is making his fantasy owners smile. The Detroit running back has found the end zone six times in four games, in spite of 276 yards on the ground. No running back in the Honolulu Blue has ever scored that many rushing TDs through Detroit’s first four games of a season. Not Barry Sanders, not Billy Sims, not even Dutch Clark back in the newsreel days of the 1930s.
Will the Lions’ offensive show continue to fly high in Foxboro on Sunday when the team faces the Patriots? New England coach Bill Belichick is known for leading with his defense, but this season New England is 22nd out of 32 NFL teams in points against. In Week 3, the Pats allowed four passing scores and one on the ground against the Ravens. Last week, against the Green Bay Packers, Belichick’s defense surrendered two more touchdowns through the air and allowed 27 points in a loss.
This is not your father’s Patriots D, folks. And, to be fair this is not your father’s Detroit O, either.
BetMGM Michigan lists the Over/Under for the Lions vs. Patriots at 45.5, the same as you’ll get from Caesars, FanDuel, and most sports betting apps in Michigan.
That places the Lions’ game in the middle of Over/Under lists for Week 5 in the NFL. Seven games have lower O/U odds, and eight are higher. It seems even oddsmakers aren’t sure they can believe what Goff and the Detroit offense are doing this season. But given the way New England’s defense has been generous (especially against the pass), we wouldn’t at all be afraid to wager on the Over for the Lions.
AP Photo/Duane Burleson
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