One of the best things about NFL sports betting is that it’s loaded with player props – particularly futures props. One of the most popular of these bets is total rushing yards during the regular season.
The sportsbooks determine a total for all the top running backs in the NFL, and it’s up to you to decide if it will go over or under. This year, the major books have set D’Andre Swift’s total between 825.5 and 850.5.
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Swift has never rushed for more than 617 yards in his short career, but will the talented back have a breakout season in his third year as a pro? Let’s take a look.
D’Andre Swift Regular Season Rushing Yards Odds
| Player | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | Over 850.5 (-108) Under 850.5 (-118) | Over 850.5 (-115) Under 850.5 (-115) | Over 849.5 (-115) Under 849.5 (-115) | Over 825.5 (-115) Under 825.5 (-115) |
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Swift by the Numbers
After Swift had a standout career at Georgia, the Detroit Lions took Swift early in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. The Philly native played in 13 games in his rookie season, splitting carries with Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson, and winding up with 114 carries for 521 rushing yards and a 4.1 YPC average.
In his second year, Swift shared running duties with Jamaal Williams and tallied 617 yards on 151 carries (4.6 YPC) to go with 50 catches and 420 receiving yards. Williams ended up with more carries than Swift on the season (153) in what was a true timeshare in the backfield.
Running Back Faces Uphill Battle
There are a couple of reasons why it could be tough for Swift to eclipse 825 to 850 yards rushing, and it starts with injuries.
Swift has yet to play an entire season in the NFL, and his injury troubles date back to college. Last season, Swift missed four games with shoulder and groin issues, and his toughness has since been called out by running backs coach Duce Staley.
Another concern is Jamaal Williams. With Swift’s durability issues, the Lions will likely continue to share his workload with the former Green Bay Packer. Williams had no shortage of touches last season (179), and he complements Swift’s speed with his bruising style.
While a healthy Swift should definitely see more touches than Williams, there will still be plenty of division of labor in the backfield.
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Setting his Sights High
Despite never achieving 1,000 yards rushing or receiving, Swift claims his goal this season is to do both. He’d be in elite company if he managed to accomplish the feat, as only three players (Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, Christian McCaffrey) have ever done it.
Though Swift is an excellent pass-catcher (62 receptions last year), he still only produced 452 yards through the air last year. His total yardage on the season was just over 1,000, so doubling that in one year seems a bit unrealistic at this point.
Take the under with Swift
Last season Swift averaged 11.6 carries per game and ended up with 617 rushing yards. He did miss four games, but even if he played all 17 games, his projected rushing total still would have only been 806 yards.
To take the over on his total this year, you’d be counting on him playing every game and averaging a few more carries than he did last year. With Williams still in the mix and Swift’s health an ongoing concern, the under is the safest bet here.
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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